Final Bracket (Right Side)

Philadelphia

UNC 1
Hampton 16
Raleigh
Providence 8
Uconn 9

California 5
Chattanooga 12
Providence
Purdue 4
Fresno St. 13

Baylor 6
St. Mary’s 11
Denver
Utah 3
Hawaii 14

Iowa 7
Cincinnati 10
Brooklyn
West Virginia 2
Weber St. 15

Louisville
Villanova 1
Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson 16
Brooklyn
Wisconsin 8
Gonzaga 9

Arizona 5
Yale 12
Providence
Miami 4
Stony Brook 13

Notre Dame 6
San Diego St/Temple 11
Des Moines
Indiana 3
Buffalo 14

Colorado 7
VCU 10
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma 2
Wisconsin Green-Bay 15

FINAL BRACKET (LEFT SIDE)

Chicago

1 Kansas
16 Austin Peay/Holy Cross
Des Moines
8 St. Joe’s
9 USC

5 Maryland
12 South Dakota St.
Denver
4 Texas AM
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Texas
11 Arkansas Little Rock
St. Louis
3 Xavier
14 Middle Tennessee St.

7 Texas Tech
10 Wichita St.
Spokane
2 Oregon
15 Cal St. Bakersfield

Houston
1 Michigan St.
16 Florida Gulf Coast
St. Louis
8 Oregon St.
9 Butler

5 Duke
12 Northern Iowa
Spokane
4 Seton Hall
13 NC Wilmington

6 Iowa St.
11 Pitt/Valparaiso
Oklahoma City
3 Kentucky
14 Iona

7 Dayton
10 Michigan
Raleigh
2 Virginia
15 NC Asheville

Right side of Bracket

Philadelphia

UNC 1
Hampton 16
Raleigh
Providence 8
St. Joe’s 9

California 5
Chattanooga 12
Providence
Purdue 4
Fresno St. 13

Baylor 6
St. Mary’s 11
Denver
Utah 3
Hawaii 14

Iowa 7
Cincinnati 10
Brooklyn
West Virginia 2
Weber St. 15

Louisville
Villanova 1
Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson 16
Brooklyn
Wisconsin 8
VCU 9

Arizona 5
Yale 12
Providence
Miami 4
Stony Brook 13

Notre Dame 6
San Diego St/Temple 11
Des Moines
Indiana 3
Buffalo 14

Colorado 7
Gonzaga 10
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma 2
Wisconsin Green-Bay 15

Updated Bracketology 3/12 Midnight EST

Dayton 8: Southern vs Fairlegih Dickinson, Austin Peay vs Holy Cross, Pitt vs Valparaiso, San Diego St vs Temple.

First five out: St. Bonaventure, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, George Washington.

Any errors or comments? Contact @manwithaspreads

Please check out the bracketmatrix.com

Chicago

1 Kansas
16 Austin Peay/Holy Cross
Des Moines
8 USC
9 Uconn

5 Maryland
12 South Dakota St.
Denver
4 Texas AM
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Texas
11 Arkansas Little Rock
St. Louis
3 Xavier
14 Middle Tennessee St.

7 Texas Tech
10 Wichita St.
Spokane
2 Oregon
15 New Mexico St.

Houston
1 Michigan St.
16 Florida Gulf Coast
St. Louis
8 Oregon St.
9 Butler

5 Duke
12 Northern Iowa
Spokane
4 Seton Hall
13 NC Wilmington

6 Iowa St.
11 Pitt/Valparaiso
Oklahoma City
3 Kentucky
14 Iona

7 Dayton
10 Michigan
Raleigh
2 Virginia
15 NC Asheville

MLB Expected Slash Lines based on Exit Velocity

In following up with my previous post, https://manwithaspreadsheet.com/2015/12/10/expected-batting-average-on-batted-balls/, I am attempting to quantify the expected slash line of individual MLB hitters based on solely their exit velocity generated. This is just one fun metric to use to try and identify which players under/over-performed based on results-oriented metrics. I am still tweaking the model, having some difficulty with pull-oriented hitters being overrated (Ortiz) and players with speed, being underrated (Dee Gordon). This is a fun exercise to view 2015 data in a different light:

Hitter xVAVG xVOBP xVSLG xVOPS
Jose Bautista 0.356 0.467 0.574 1.041
Miguel Cabrera 0.285 0.396 0.586 0.982
Michael Conforto 0.342 0.402 0.575 0.977
Josh Donaldson 0.347 0.418 0.554 0.972
Manny Machado 0.35 0.417 0.548 0.965
Yoenis Cespedes 0.351 0.385 0.566 0.951
Mike Trout 0.327 0.422 0.521 0.943
Ryan Zimmerman 0.332 0.392 0.548 0.94
Daniel Murphy 0.355 0.395 0.544 0.939
Bryce Harper 0.314 0.448 0.488 0.936
Carlos Correa 0.334 0.398 0.536 0.934
Edwin Encarnacion 0.278 0.372 0.558 0.93
David Ortiz 0.275 0.37 0.556 0.926
Eric Hosmer 0.337 0.4 0.522 0.922
Paul Goldschmidt 0.306 0.428 0.492 0.92
Lorenzo Cain 0.343 0.386 0.529 0.915
Matt Holliday 0.265 0.374 0.538 0.912
David Peralta 0.329 0.389 0.522 0.911
Ryan Braun 0.319 0.387 0.521 0.908
A.J. Pollock 0.34 0.395 0.512 0.907
Carlos Santana 0.309 0.425 0.482 0.907
Kendrys Morales 0.276 0.345 0.559 0.904
Albert Pujols 0.285 0.342 0.561 0.903
Jason Heyward 0.33 0.395 0.504 0.899
Hanley Ramirez 0.291 0.328 0.57 0.898
Adrian Beltre 0.342 0.388 0.501 0.889
Marcell Ozuna 0.326 0.37 0.518 0.888
Prince Fielder 0.276 0.346 0.541 0.887
Mookie Betts 0.336 0.385 0.499 0.884
Giancarlo Stanton 0.297 0.375 0.509 0.884
Yasiel Puig 0.31 0.37 0.513 0.883
Carlos Beltran 0.292 0.355 0.522 0.877
Christian Yelich 0.319 0.382 0.493 0.875
Howie Kendrick 0.333 0.372 0.502 0.874
Robinson Cano 0.274 0.323 0.55 0.873
Clint Robinson 0.268 0.348 0.519 0.867
Buster Posey 0.293 0.36 0.502 0.862
Jung Ho Kang 0.319 0.364 0.496 0.86
Nolan Arenado 0.323 0.361 0.498 0.859
Gregory Polanco 0.316 0.376 0.48 0.856
Michael Brantley 0.283 0.358 0.498 0.856
Josh Reddick 0.324 0.384 0.47 0.854
Danny Valencia 0.264 0.323 0.528 0.851
Carlos Gonzalez 0.306 0.361 0.487 0.848
Wilson Ramos 0.303 0.334 0.513 0.847
Logan Morrison 0.26 0.331 0.511 0.842
Denard Span 0.308 0.374 0.466 0.84
Justin Turner 0.299 0.361 0.477 0.838
Anthony Rizzo 0.271 0.359 0.479 0.838
George Springer 0.297 0.379 0.458 0.837
Freddie Freeman 0.291 0.377 0.455 0.832
Jose Abreu 0.276 0.322 0.506 0.828
Nelson Cruz 0.246 0.317 0.51 0.827
Trevor Plouffe 0.302 0.36 0.466 0.826
Yasmani Grandal 0.237 0.357 0.469 0.826
Shin-Soo Choo 0.28 0.369 0.456 0.825
Pedro Alvarez 0.267 0.341 0.484 0.825
Mike Moustakas 0.262 0.317 0.508 0.825
Justin Bour 0.251 0.31 0.514 0.824
Hunter Pence 0.275 0.329 0.489 0.818
Ben Zobrist 0.272 0.359 0.458 0.817
Yunel Escobar 0.263 0.322 0.495 0.817
Brad Miller 0.259 0.332 0.484 0.816
Maikel Franco 0.277 0.336 0.478 0.814
Nick Markakis 0.286 0.361 0.449 0.81
Cameron Maybin 0.296 0.356 0.452 0.808
Andrelton Simmons 0.318 0.366 0.441 0.807
Preston Tucker 0.283 0.33 0.476 0.806
Andrew McCutchen 0.241 0.355 0.451 0.806
Travis d’Arnaud 0.291 0.355 0.449 0.804
Yonder Alonso 0.294 0.371 0.433 0.804
Eduardo Nunez 0.29 0.335 0.469 0.804
Joey Votto 0.219 0.384 0.419 0.803
Jason Kipnis 0.299 0.365 0.436 0.801
Mark Teixeira 0.238 0.339 0.461 0.8
Melky Cabrera 0.26 0.306 0.494 0.8
Adam Jones 0.303 0.334 0.462 0.796
Kyle Schwarber 0.268 0.368 0.426 0.794
Jayson Werth 0.283 0.359 0.434 0.793
Enrique Hernandez 0.273 0.313 0.48 0.793
Dustin Ackley 0.251 0.305 0.487 0.792
Justin Upton 0.279 0.361 0.429 0.79
Rougned Odor 0.297 0.335 0.455 0.79
Juan Uribe 0.289 0.352 0.437 0.789
Evan Longoria 0.274 0.333 0.455 0.788
Lucas Duda 0.26 0.353 0.435 0.788
Russell Martin 0.257 0.339 0.449 0.788
Mitch Moreland 0.25 0.3 0.488 0.788
J.T. Realmuto 0.303 0.334 0.451 0.785
Alex Rodriguez 0.238 0.345 0.44 0.785
Gregor Blanco 0.287 0.367 0.418 0.785
DJ LeMahieu 0.295 0.354 0.431 0.785
Kolten Wong 0.303 0.347 0.438 0.785
Mark Trumbo 0.243 0.295 0.489 0.784
Xander Bogaerts 0.305 0.342 0.441 0.783
Kyle Seager 0.272 0.332 0.451 0.783
Curtis Granderson 0.271 0.372 0.411 0.783
Billy Butler 0.245 0.314 0.469 0.783
Adam Lind 0.237 0.328 0.453 0.781
J.D. Martinez 0.236 0.301 0.48 0.781

Expected Batting Average on Batted Balls

Spent a few weeks digging through data from the excellent @darenw on his website baseballsavant.com. Daren has discussed in the past a donut-hole with the data; where a batter generally experiences more success on a high-60 mph generated ball than a similar at bat culminating with mid-80 exit velocity.

Using this data, I wanted to quantify which players are expected to have the best batting average on batted balls (please note this differs from BABIP, as this includes homers). I will post some more information in coming articles, examining batted ball luck by player/pitcher, as well as looking at Expected Slugging %. The flaws in this analysis should be noted as well: Exit Velocity data is still somewhat raw, and this does not factor in speed or the possibility of exit velocity readings being park-dependent. Below is a ranking of the top 50 hitters with at least 100 balls batted, as well as the top 25 pitchers with at least 300 batted balls allowed.

Hitter Avg(Batted Balls)
Giancarlo Stanton 0.484
Miguel Sano 0.444
Nelson Cruz 0.431
Mike Trout 0.430
Yoenis Cespedes 0.427
Miguel Cabrera 0.425
Michael Conforto 0.425
Jose Bautista 0.423
Pedro Alvarez 0.423
Chris Carter 0.423
Justin Bour 0.420
Randal Grichuk 0.419
Ryan Zimmerman 0.419
Mark Trumbo 0.416
David Peralta 0.416
Josh Donaldson 0.416
Hanley Ramirez 0.415
Marcell Ozuna 0.415
Ryan Braun 0.413
Danny Valencia 0.413
Paul Goldschmidt 0.413
J.D. Martinez 0.412
Jorge Soler 0.412
Matt Holliday 0.411
Michael Morse 0.411
Kendrys Morales 0.411
Kyle Schwarber 0.410
Edwin Encarnacion 0.409
David Ortiz 0.407
Jose Abreu 0.407
Yasiel Puig 0.406
Chris Davis 0.406
Jung Ho Kang 0.404
Justin Smoak 0.404
Carlos Correa 0.403
Manny Machado 0.403
Wilson Ramos 0.401
Joc Pederson 0.401
Carlos Gonzalez 0.399
Jonathan Schoop 0.398
Robinson Cano 0.397
Hunter Pence 0.397
Mitch Moreland 0.396
Bryce Harper 0.396
Ryan Howard 0.396
Eric Hosmer 0.394
Khris Davis 0.394
Yasmani Grandal 0.394
Shin-Soo Choo 0.393
George Springer 0.392

Clayton Kershaw 0.313
Jake Arrieta 0.316
Chris Sale 0.321
Collin McHugh 0.325
Matt Harvey 0.326
Noah Syndergaard 0.326
Madison Bumgarner 0.328
Francisco Liriano 0.329
Shelby Miller 0.330
Dallas Keuchel 0.330
Tyson Ross 0.330
CC Sabathia 0.331
Jered Weaver 0.332
Jacob deGrom 0.332
Jimmy Nelson 0.334
Jeff Locke 0.336
Jeff Samardzija 0.336
Wade Miley 0.336
Adam Warren 0.337
R.A. Dickey 0.337
Zack Greinke 0.337
Max Scherzer 0.337
Odrisamer Despaigne 0.337
Marco Estrada 0.338
John Danks 0.338

Rest of season: QB Re-ranks

My Rank  Player Name Position Team
1 Tom Brady QB NE
2 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
3 Andrew Luck QB IND
4 Cam Newton QB CAR
5 Carson Palmer QB ARI
6 Russell Wilson QB SEA
7 Matt Ryan QB ATL
8 Andy Dalton QB CIN
9 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
10 Philip Rivers QB SD
11 Drew Brees QB NO
12 Eli Manning QB NYG
13 Tyrod Taylor QB Buf
14 Ryan Tannehill QB MIA
15 Tony Romo QB DAL
16 Blake Bortles QB JAC
17 Jay Cutler QB CHI
18 Colin Kaepernick QB SF
19 Matthew Stafford QB DET
20 Derek Carr QB OAK