Note: Includes all games through 3/10 besides Arkansas St (they took Middle Tennessee State’s place in the field).
The committee is meeting and we are less than one week from the unveiling of the brackets. It was an exciting Saturday in college basketball, as (mostly) bubble teams prevailed and four invitations were confirmed for the big dance. For those unaware, Manwithaspreadsheet is a part of a “bracket matrix” which you can track at http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm . I would suggest following this site over any individual bracketologist. This website scores the accuracy of each bracketologist and we hope to fare well on our first Selection Sunday.
Welcome Belmont, Florida Gulf Coast, Liberty and Creighton. Liberty and Florida Gulf Coast will likely play in Dayton (although not necessarily against each other), while Belmont appears headed towards a 12-5 matchup. Creighton could go anywhere from a 6 to a 9, and I project them currently as a dangerous 7-seed.
Kansas remains a 1-seed ever-so-slightly over a 7-loss Michigan State team, after getting blown out at Baylor. New Mexico’s bid for a possible 1-seed ended in a loss at pesky Air Force, but the regular season champion of the RPI’s number one conference could end up a 2-seed, especially if they cut down the nets in Vegas. Florida continues to underperform on the road and has fallen all the way to a 4-seed. Tennessee, Baylor, Kentucky, Boise State Ole Miss and Virginia all improved their resumes with wins this weekend. This should be an exciting Championship Week, as the bubble will shrink. Currently I am projecting 7 bubble teams fighting for 3 spots: St. Mary’s, Tennessee, Baylor, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Virginia and the Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee State.
Last four in: Missouri, St. Mary’s, Tennessee, Baylor
I continue to be less impressed with the Tigers’ and Gaels’ resumes than other bracketologists. Missouri has just two road wins (but multiple neutral court wins) and is the 6-seed in SEC tournament with just 3 RPI top 50 wins. St. Mary’s had an OK non-conference schedule with a home victory vs Creighton and two bad losses to sub-100 RPI teams. They have failed to beat Gonzaga twice and if they fail a third time I am not certain they deserve a bid.
Next four in: Oklahoma, Iowa State, Wichita State, Boise State
These teams still certainly have work to do in their conference tournaments, and the Shockers have an anxious 7 days of waiting. I do not believe these teams are locks and the bubble could certainly strengthen over the next week. Iowa State/Oklahoma should be an exciting matchup, with the winner sealing a bid.
First four out: Ole Miss, Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, Virginia
Virginia and Ole MIss’ pathetic non-conference schedules continue to damage them and they need to win multiple games to make the tournament. Kentucky’s win over Florida is nice, but I would like to see them win on a neutral floor, after beating Florida and falling to Georgia in the last week. Their resume certainly doesn’t stand out, and they are without their best player. Virginia is just an absurd team and I believe if they make the ACC Championship Game (which they certainly are capable of doing), they will be dancing. Middle Tennessee State is an interesting case and I certainly give them a chance of the committee allowing them after having the 11th ranked non-conference schedule and going 19-1 in the Sun Belt.
This week should be fun.
|Indiana||1||San Diego St||9|
|Kansas||1||North Car St||9|
|New Mexico||3||Iowa St||11|
|Ohio St||3||Wichita St||11|
|St Louis||5||Louisiana Tech||13|
|Col St||6||Stephen F Austin||13|
|Wisconsin||6||South Dakota St||13|
|Illinois||7||Long Beach St||15|
|Memphis||8||FLORIDA GULF COAST||16|
|Long Island Brooklyn||16|