Hello all, below is my re-rank of the top 50 “outfielders”. I did not include players that I would not use at an OF position (for example Ben Zobrist should be used at 2B or SS, not OF). Now that we are 1/3 of the way into the season (almost) we can accurately assess the strengths and weaknesses of our teams, and adjust accordingly. Examining the re-ranks below should allow you to maximize value for your players; deciding on sell high and buy low candidates. Below is the re-rank for a 5X5 roto league:
|Alejandro De Aza||CWS||39|
The formula for buy lows/sell high’s is simple; if a player’s perceived value greatly exceeds his true value, we advise to sell, and vice versa.
Buy high: Chris Davis, Alex Rios, Carlos Gomez
All three of these players have emerged into our top 12, making each an OF1. These players can still be bought at a discounted value because they do not carry the same perceived value as a (see our sell high candidates). Chris Davis is batting in the middle of a potent offense, in a hitters park and has 50-home run potential this season. His strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up and Chris Davis will finish the season as a top 10 1B/OF. Alex Rios’ inconsistent past allows us to purchase him at discounted value, but he is continuing where he left off last season and I could see him going 60/15/60/15/.300 the rest of the way. Carlos Gomez I think is perhaps the best buy high candidate of them all; he is a former top prospect who has put it all together since becoming a full time player last season. Although I expect his average to declined due to batted ball fortune, Gomez could swipe you an additional 30 bases with 15 homeruns for the rest of the season. We would explore acquiring Davis, Rios or Gomez if we could just get rid of….
Sell High: Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury, perhaps Andrew McCutchen
In one of my Pro Leagues a Kemp-for-Machado deal was vetoed because Kemp still has an insanely high perceived value. I would gladly trade Matt Kemp for Carlos Gomez and I could probably get more value back. I do not expect Kemp to continue on his 70/10/60/20/.270 pace, but I am also not expecting OF1 production for the rest of the season. Although I hate to speculate, it appears as if Kemp is battling some sort of injury. I do not expect Kemp to amass 20 homeruns and I would expect him to perform as a slightly better Jacoby Ellsbury, who also finds his way on our sell high list. I was shocked the injury magnet Ellsbury was being drafted as a fourth rounder this year. IF Ellsbury is able to stay healthy the rest of the season, a big if, he is mainly a one-category player. Shin Soo Choo is a similar type of player, being valued much less (East Coast bias?) who hits for more power, atop a better lineup, but offers less speed. I would sell Ellsbury if I could. In my opinion McCutchen was severely overvalued due to his inflated BABIP and torrid first half last season. Although I still think he is a top 20 fantasy player, I believe it is worth mentioning if you could deal him for a Clayton Kershaw or perhaps even a Paul Goldschmidt it might be worth exploring.
Buy Low: Dexter Fowler, Norichika Aoki, Hunter Pence
I love Norichika Aoki. I have found myself with a consistently large number of stock in Aoki in both 2012 and 2013 and the emergence of Jean Segura has only increased his value. Aoki is a great player to target if you are in need of improvement in AVG, R and SB. Aoki is a consistent, safe bet to amass 25 more steals and bat for .290 the rest of the way, racking up a solid amount of runs atop the Brewers offense. He also could hit double digit homers the rest of the way. Dexter Fowler is a likely 20/20 player hitting in Coors Field and is still not being valued as anything more than a UTIL in 12 team mixed leagues. Fowler’s hot start is legit, he bats atop a great Rockies lineup and has the much coveted power-speed combination. Hunter Pence is a known commodity who has emerged with some speed in 2013, having already passed his 2012 total. I have no explanation for this, but if I can get him cheap I am willing to hope he can pick me up an additional 7-8 sneaky steals the rest of the season. Pence has always been a consistent middle of the lineup 20 homerun bat, but the use of his legs could allow him to finish as a top 25 OF by season’s end.
Sell low: Michael Bourn, Desmond Jennings, Anyone not on our list
I don’t understand the Michael Bourn love. Yes, he will likely get 30 steals the rest of the season, but he kills you in the other categories. I’d give up the 10 additional steals for guys that can also get me 10 additional homers, like the players listed above. Desmond Jennings is a player I have stock in, hoping that some Rays magic would rub off on him, and that he would take the next step. However I am ready to sell for 85 cents on the dollar. The Rays offense is underperforming and Jennings is draining my batting average. I’ll sell on him. There are many players not on our list who if you can get value for, do it. These players include but are not limited to: Andre Ethier, Torii Hunter, Jon Jay, Wil Myers, Oscar Taveras, Adam Dunn, Nick Swisher. Of course, I am talking about 12 team mixers.
Happy trading! As always tweet to us @manwithaspreads