Fantasy Football Rankings: QB Edition

As the first edition of our four-part series, we will focus on the QB position. When deciding where to draft a quarterback, it is very important to understand your league’s scoring settings, specifically if you are in a 6 pt pass-TD league that is not a PPR, QB scoring is extremely important. Generally speaking 6 pt pass-TD leagues favor gunslingers (Stafford, Romo, Luck), while 4 pt pass-TD leagues favor rushing QB’s (Kaepernick, RG3, Cam, Wilson, Vick). QB is incredibly deep and as shown by our PPG (points per game) there is not a large marginal discrepancy between QB1 and QB12 for instance (less than 5 ppg). This scoring assumes a 4 pt pass TD league w/ 30 pass yds=1 pt. QBs are devalued in PPR leagues, because other positions are scoring more. It is important to understand the value of QB before crafting a strategy of when to select your starter. Below are our ranks, by QB and overall, with ADP and a rough measure of where QBs should be selected in a 12 team league, listed with their points per game:

 

 Player Name  Position      Team  ADP  PPG Round
Aaron Rodgers QB 1 16 GB 12 20.0 2
Drew Brees QB 2 17 NO 14 19.1 2
Cam Newton QB 3 27 CAR 28 18.4 3
Peyton Manning QB 4 31 DEN 22 18.1 3
Tom Brady QB 5 49 NE 36 17.1 4
Colin Kaepernick QB 6 57 SF 54 17.1 5
Matt Ryan QB 7 58 ATL 40 16.8 5
Robert Griffin III QB 8 61 WAS 65 17.6 6
Andrew Luck QB 9 72 IND 63 16.5 6
Russell Wilson QB 10 73 SEA 74 16.6 7
Matthew Stafford QB 11 75 DET 60 16.2 6
Tony Romo QB 12 83 DAL 77 15.5 7
Ben Roethlisberger QB 13 94 PIT 126 13.8 10
Eli Manning QB 14 102 NYG 96 13.9 9
Andy Dalton QB 15 120 CIN 117 13.4 10
Joe Flacco QB 16 128 BAL 134 12.4 11
Josh Freeman QB 17 134 TB 156 13.3 13
Michael Vick QB 18 151 PHI 123 14.1 12
Jay Cutler QB 19 159 CHI 143 12.7 13

In 10-to-14 team standard leagues (4 pt pass TD’s and non-PPR) it is definitely advisable to wait on selecting a quarterback. Simply put, the difference between Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers is about the difference between a top-5 RB and a 2nd round running back (Martin vs Ridley). Our recommended strategy is to wait on quarterback, focusing on the last available out of the RG3/Luck/Wilson/Stafford/Romo group, or even waiting to draft the last QB off the board. In mock drafts I have been able to wait until round 11 or 12 to select my first quarterback, pairing Ben Roethlisberger and Andy Dalton, allowing match-ups to dictate my starter. Also, there is no need in standard formats to carry a backup QB unless RG3 is your quarterback or you choose to play match-ups.

Tier 1: Rodgers, Brees (2nd round)

Tier 2: Newton, Manning (3rd round)

Tier 3: Brady, Kaepernick, Ryan, RG3 (Rounds 5-6)

Tier 4: Luck, Wilson, Stafford, Romo (Rounds 7-8)

Tier 5: Big Ben, Eli, Dalton, Flacco, Freeman, Vick, Cutler (match-up plays, Rounds 10+)

Overvalued: Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan

This message is consistent with my previous sermon: Do not overpay for QBs. Across their tiers, there is not much of a PPG difference to justify Brady and Ryan going two rounds ahead of Kaep or RG3, or even Peyton going over Newton. Do not pay for brand-name recognition.

Undervalued: Nobody

I could have chosen Romo, RG3 or Cam, but frankly with the ADP data from fantasypros.com, everyone is being overvalued. Allow others to select QBs as you stockpile at WR/RB, and see if you can grab the last QB from Tier 3 or 4.

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