As the first edition of our four-part series, we will focus on the QB position. When deciding where to draft a quarterback, it is very important to understand your league’s scoring settings, specifically if you are in a 6 pt pass-TD league that is not a PPR, QB scoring is extremely important. Generally speaking 6 pt pass-TD leagues favor gunslingers (Stafford, Romo, Luck), while 4 pt pass-TD leagues favor rushing QB’s (Kaepernick, RG3, Cam, Wilson, Vick). QB is incredibly deep and as shown by our PPG (points per game) there is not a large marginal discrepancy between QB1 and QB12 for instance (less than 5 ppg). This scoring assumes a 4 pt pass TD league w/ 30 pass yds=1 pt. QBs are devalued in PPR leagues, because other positions are scoring more. It is important to understand the value of QB before crafting a strategy of when to select your starter. Below are our ranks, by QB and overall, with ADP and a rough measure of where QBs should be selected in a 12 team league, listed with their points per game:
|Robert Griffin III||QB||8||61||WAS||65||17.6||6|
In 10-to-14 team standard leagues (4 pt pass TD’s and non-PPR) it is definitely advisable to wait on selecting a quarterback. Simply put, the difference between Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers is about the difference between a top-5 RB and a 2nd round running back (Martin vs Ridley). Our recommended strategy is to wait on quarterback, focusing on the last available out of the RG3/Luck/Wilson/Stafford/Romo group, or even waiting to draft the last QB off the board. In mock drafts I have been able to wait until round 11 or 12 to select my first quarterback, pairing Ben Roethlisberger and Andy Dalton, allowing match-ups to dictate my starter. Also, there is no need in standard formats to carry a backup QB unless RG3 is your quarterback or you choose to play match-ups.
Tier 1: Rodgers, Brees (2nd round)
Tier 2: Newton, Manning (3rd round)
Tier 3: Brady, Kaepernick, Ryan, RG3 (Rounds 5-6)
Tier 4: Luck, Wilson, Stafford, Romo (Rounds 7-8)
Tier 5: Big Ben, Eli, Dalton, Flacco, Freeman, Vick, Cutler (match-up plays, Rounds 10+)
Overvalued: Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan
This message is consistent with my previous sermon: Do not overpay for QBs. Across their tiers, there is not much of a PPG difference to justify Brady and Ryan going two rounds ahead of Kaep or RG3, or even Peyton going over Newton. Do not pay for brand-name recognition.
I could have chosen Romo, RG3 or Cam, but frankly with the ADP data from fantasypros.com, everyone is being overvalued. Allow others to select QBs as you stockpile at WR/RB, and see if you can grab the last QB from Tier 3 or 4.