Fantasy Football Rankings: WR Edition

For the fourth and final edition of our Fantasy Football Rankings series, we focus on wideouts. Draft strategy and importance of WR varies by league, as standard formats sometimes have 2 WR, 2 RB, and a flex. Hopefully the Point Per Game average at the right can be of some assistance when deciding to flex a WR or a RB. Obviously WR are more valuable in 3 WR formats, and as always our ranks below are formatted for standard 10-to-14 team leagues:

 Rank   Player Name  Position  Overall Team  ADP  PPG
7 Calvin Johnson WR 10 DET 8 14.1
12 A.J. Green WR 12 CIN 15 12.5
14 Brandon Marshall WR 13 CHI 19 12.2
13 Dez Bryant WR 14 DAL 14 12.4
20 Demaryius Thomas WR 23 DEN 24 11.5
18 Julio Jones WR 24 ATL 18 12.0
26 Roddy White WR 25 ATL 28 11.0
28 Randall Cobb WR 26 GB 30 10.9
25 Larry Fitzgerald WR 27 ARI 26 11.0
29 Victor Cruz WR 29 NYG 35 10.4
37 Marques Colston WR 34 NO 42 9.9
27 Andre Johnson WR 35 HOU 29 11.0
30 Vincent Jackson WR 36 TB 37 10.8
40 Dwayne Bowe WR 40 KC 44 9.6
49 Danny Amendola WR 41 NE 45 8.8
42 Reggie Wayne WR 44 IND 47 9.6
45 Hakeem Nicks WR 46 NYG 50 8.9
41 Jordy Nelson WR 47 GB 51 9.0
56 Antonio Brown WR 49 PIT 65 9.0
61 Steve Smith WR 50 CAR 66 9.3
53 Pierre Garcon WR 51 WAS 58 9.6
54 Torrey Smith WR 53 BAL 52 9.2
51 Wes Welker WR 54 DEN 43 9.3
58 Mike Wallace WR 55 MIA 63 8.8
55 Eric Decker WR 62 DEN 57 9.3
69 Cecil Shorts WR 64 JAC 75 8.8
78 DeSean Jackson WR 65 PHI 67 8.4
84 Ty Hilton WR 66 IND 78 8.5
81 Miles Austin WR 67 DAL 86 8.4
70 James Jones WR 73 GB 69 8.7
79 Mike Williams WR 75 TB 85 8.2
74 Steve Johnson WR 78 BUF 79 8.4
91 Lance Moore WR 80 NO 97 8.1
87 Josh Gordon WR 81 CLE 98 7.7
86 Tavon Austin WR 82 STL 76 7.9
88 Kenny Britt WR 83 TEN 93 7.9
77 Greg Jennings WR 84 MIN 81 7.5
114 Emmanuel Sanders WR 89 PIT 109 8.0
128 Ryan Broyles WR 90 DET 140 6.7
130 Chris Givens WR 91 STL 105 7.2
  Kenbrell Thompkins WR 92 NE 173 5.5
93 Anquan Boldin WR 95 SF 80 7.6
119 Justin Blackmon WR 96 JAC 129 6.4
130 Vincent Brown WR 102 SD 124 8.7
121 Golden Tate WR 104 SEA 106 7.5
107 Sidney Rice WR 106 SEA 104 6.9
117 Kendall Wright WR 109 TEN 160 6.6
103 Denarius Moore WR 110 OAK 108 7.2
167 Cordarrelle Patterson WR 117 MIN 137 4.8
123 Alshon Jeffery WR 118 CHI 136 6.5
124 DeAndre Hopkins WR 119 HOU 119 6.4
142 Rueben Randle WR 120 NYG 146 6.6
116 Michael Floyd WR 125 ARI 111 7.3
131 Brian Hartline WR 126 MIA 155 6.2
182 Mohamed Sanu WR 128 CIN 181 5.4
226 Jeremy Kerley WR 129 NYJ 264 4.9
188 Rod Streater WR 135 OAK 228 5.8
134 Aaron Dobson WR 136 NE 148 5.3
147 Malcom Floyd WR 137 SD 165 5.7
139 Darrius Heyward-Bey WR 148 IND 161 5.4
172 Andre Roberts WR 156 ARI 199 5.2
236 Donnie Avery WR 164 KC 221 4.2
313 Josh Boyce WR 165 NE 357 1.5
141 Brandon LaFell WR 170 CAR 188 6.3

In our evaluation of wideouts, we prefer those who consistently receive targets over those who have big game potential, or are touchdown dependent since those are rather fluky for WR. Outside of the first tier of stud WR’s, mostly our strategy focuses on RB-RB in the first two rounds, however if a stud WR falls to you (have seen Marshall fall to late 2nd often) don’t be afraid to pounce.

Tier 1: Megatron, Green, Marshall, Dez

Tier 2: Demaryius, Julio, Roddy, Cobb, Fitzgerald, Cruz

Tier 3: Colston, Andre Johnson, V-Jax, Dwayne Bowe, Danny Amendola

Tier 4: Reggie Wayne, Nicks, Jordy, Antonio Brown, Steve Smith, Torrey Smith, Mike Wallace

Tier 5: Decker, Shorts, D-Jax, Hilton, Austin

Tier 6: J. Jones, Mike Williams, Stevie Johnson, L. Moore, Josh Gordon, T. Austin, Britt, Jennings

Tier 7: Broyles, Givens, Kenbrell Thompkins, Boldin, Blackmon

Tier 8: Vincent Brown, Golden Tate, Sidney Rice, K. Wright, D. Moore

Tier 9: C. Patterson, Jeffery, D. Hopkins, Randle, Michael Floyd, Hartline, Sanu, Kerley

Tier 10 : Streater, Dobson, Malcom Floyd, Heyward-Bey, A. Roberts, Avery, Boyce, Lafell

Overvalued: Julio Jones, Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, Anquan Boldin, Michael Floyd.

Julio is being drafted 10 spot higher than Roddy White, despite having less receptions, less targets, and less receiving yards. Yes, he has upside, but teams can and have taken Julio or Roddy out of the gameplan. Julio will not justify a top 20 draft position. Andre Johnson with a 3rd round ADP (29) is absolutely insane. This is an extremely risky, injury prone player in an offense that is committed to the run. I can’t understand Andre Johnson being taken as a top 10 wideout. I do believe that Welker and Decker will have solid WR2/WR3 seasons, but I think their upside is limited with three solid wideouts and an emerging TE in Thomas, and they are being selected alongside players who possess greater potential. On over 100 targets each of the past three seasons, Anquan Boldin has averaged less than 900 yards. He is a low upside WR4, who is going way too early. I am still a strong believer in Andre Roberts, I expect him to be sort of like Nate Burleson last year, an older WR who produces servicable numbers in deeper leagues and takes away from Michael Floyd’s value.

Undervalued: Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, Miles Austin, Kenbrell Thompkins, Ryan Broyles, Chris Givens, Jeremy Kerley, Brian Hartline, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders.

Marshall comes off a season where he received 192(!) targets, 1500+ yards and double digit touchdowns. There is absolutely no reason Julio Jones should go ahead of him in drafts. Steve Smith is not a sexy pick, but Cam will get him the ball and he will receive consistent targets and justify selecting him before his ADP. The hate has gone too far on Miles Austin, he has solid WR2 upside and is currently the 35th WR coming off the board in drafts. The Steelers will pass the ball often, and the fantasy beneficiaries will be Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown. Look for the both to be 1000 yard receivers. Thompkins and Broyles can be an electric WR2 in their passing offenses and each have significant upside in the mid-to-late rounds. Although we prefer wideouts who receive consistent targets, explosive Chris Givens makes this list. The addition of Tavon Austin should help Givens’ big play potential as the receivers are great complements of each other. Givens has significant upside and his ADP continues to rise. Hartline and Kerley are two players who were more than adequate last season, especially in deeper leagues, and are being drafted too late. They are both great depth additions with limited upside.

 

Any questions/comments? Tweet at us @manwithaspreads

 

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