Hello all and welcome back. This is our first edition of an annual 5-part series, which can help you better prepare for your fantasy draft. Below are rankings and projections with some numbers used from the great website fantasypros.com. ECR is the expert consensus rank on fantasy pro, while ADP is the average draft position. the Y!14 and Y!10 are our projected PPG difference between “replacement level” for 14 and 10 team leagues, respectively.
|ECR Rank||Player Name||Position||Team||Rk||Bye Week||ADP||Y! 14||Y! 10|
|68||Robert Griffin III||QB||WAS||7||10||59||2.4||1.5|
Of course, an important caveat is league-size matters for your drafting strategy. I think Peyton Manning is currently being undervalued; I fully expect him to put up similar numbers as he did in 2014, and I feel comfortable investing high picks in passing QBs who have, for the most part, been relatively stable. I can trust Peyton to be a top 20 fantasy player more so than a Montee Ball or Le’veon Bell for instance. The general strategy I would have would be to draft early on a top 3 QB, or wait. Tier 3 is full of high upside QBs with varying degrees of question marks. Often I find that teams fill their starting roster before filling their bench; in a 10-team league it could be an optimal strategy to wait until the last 3-4 rounds to pick your QB, perhaps employing a Rivers/Roethlisberger platoon.
Tier 1: Peyton Manning
Tier 2: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees
Tier 3: Matt Stafford, Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Nick Foles, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady
Tier 4: Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Andy Dalton
Overvalued: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Nick Foles, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady. These players, despite being household names, are vastly overrated. They are about 1 PPG above the Tier 4 players who you can get in the later rounds. All of these players have their fair share of questions marks. In the middle rounds focus on catching lightning in a bottle with a RB.
Undervalued: Peyton Manning. Peyton Manning is 5-6 points more valuable than replacement level. I believe his current ADP of about 7 is accurate given this measurement, but I am seeing too many mocks with Peyton lingering into the late 2nd round.