2014 Fantasy Football: QB Rankings

Hello all and welcome back. This is our first edition of an annual 5-part series, which can help you better prepare for your fantasy draft. Below are rankings and projections with some numbers used from the great website fantasypros.com. ECR is the expert consensus rank on fantasy pro, while ADP is the average draft position. the Y!14 and Y!10 are our projected PPG difference between “replacement level” for 14 and 10 team leagues, respectively.

 

ECR Rank   Player Name  Position  Team  Rk  Bye Week  ADP  Y! 14 Y! 10
19 Peyton Manning QB DEN 1 4 7 5.8 4.9
25 Aaron Rodgers QB GB 2 9 18 5 4.1
27 Drew Brees QB NO 3 6 17 4.3 3.4
46 Matthew Stafford QB DET 4 9 40 2.3 1.4
79 Colin Kaepernick QB SF 5 8 72 2.6 1.7
49 Andrew Luck QB IND 6 10 45 2.1 1.2
68 Robert Griffin III QB WAS 7 10 59 2.4 1.5
60 Nick Foles QB PHI 8 7 62 2.1 1.2
61 Cam Newton QB CAR 9 12 56 2.1 1.2
63 Matt Ryan QB ATL 10 9 71 1.2 0.3
74 Tom Brady QB NE 11 10 61 1.2 0.3
91 Russell Wilson QB SEA 12 4 91 0.9 0
75 Tony Romo QB DAL 13 11 88 0.6 -0.3
87 Jay Cutler QB CHI 14 9 105 0.4 -0.5
97 Philip Rivers QB SD 15 10 104 0 -0.9
112 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT 16 12 125 0 -0.9
117 Andy Dalton QB CIN 17 4 132 -0.7 -1.6

Of course, an important caveat is league-size matters for your drafting strategy. I think Peyton Manning is currently being undervalued; I fully expect him to put up similar numbers as he did in 2014, and I feel comfortable investing high picks in passing QBs who have, for the most part, been relatively stable. I can trust Peyton to be a top 20 fantasy player more so than a Montee Ball or Le’veon Bell for instance. The general strategy I would have would be to draft early on a top 3 QB, or wait. Tier 3 is full of high upside QBs with varying degrees of question marks. Often I find that teams fill their starting roster before filling their bench; in a 10-team league it could be an optimal strategy to wait until the last 3-4 rounds to pick your QB, perhaps employing a Rivers/Roethlisberger platoon.

Tier 1: Peyton Manning

Tier 2: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees

Tier 3: Matt Stafford, Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Nick Foles, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady

Tier 4: Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Andy Dalton

 

Overvalued: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Nick Foles, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady. These players, despite being household names, are vastly overrated. They are about 1 PPG above the Tier 4 players who you can get in the later rounds. All of these players have their fair share of questions marks. In the middle rounds focus on catching lightning in a bottle with a RB.

Undervalued: Peyton Manning. Peyton Manning is 5-6 points more valuable than replacement level. I believe his current ADP of about 7 is accurate given this measurement, but I am seeing too many mocks with Peyton lingering into the late 2nd round.

 

Happy drafting!

 

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