Expected Batting Average on Batted Balls

Spent a few weeks digging through data from the excellent @darenw on his website baseballsavant.com. Daren has discussed in the past a donut-hole with the data; where a batter generally experiences more success on a high-60 mph generated ball than a similar at bat culminating with mid-80 exit velocity.

Using this data, I wanted to quantify which players are expected to have the best batting average on batted balls (please note this differs from BABIP, as this includes homers). I will post some more information in coming articles, examining batted ball luck by player/pitcher, as well as looking at Expected Slugging %. The flaws in this analysis should be noted as well: Exit Velocity data is still somewhat raw, and this does not factor in speed or the possibility of exit velocity readings being park-dependent. Below is a ranking of the top 50 hitters with at least 100 balls batted, as well as the top 25 pitchers with at least 300 batted balls allowed.

Hitter Avg(Batted Balls)
Giancarlo Stanton 0.484
Miguel Sano 0.444
Nelson Cruz 0.431
Mike Trout 0.430
Yoenis Cespedes 0.427
Miguel Cabrera 0.425
Michael Conforto 0.425
Jose Bautista 0.423
Pedro Alvarez 0.423
Chris Carter 0.423
Justin Bour 0.420
Randal Grichuk 0.419
Ryan Zimmerman 0.419
Mark Trumbo 0.416
David Peralta 0.416
Josh Donaldson 0.416
Hanley Ramirez 0.415
Marcell Ozuna 0.415
Ryan Braun 0.413
Danny Valencia 0.413
Paul Goldschmidt 0.413
J.D. Martinez 0.412
Jorge Soler 0.412
Matt Holliday 0.411
Michael Morse 0.411
Kendrys Morales 0.411
Kyle Schwarber 0.410
Edwin Encarnacion 0.409
David Ortiz 0.407
Jose Abreu 0.407
Yasiel Puig 0.406
Chris Davis 0.406
Jung Ho Kang 0.404
Justin Smoak 0.404
Carlos Correa 0.403
Manny Machado 0.403
Wilson Ramos 0.401
Joc Pederson 0.401
Carlos Gonzalez 0.399
Jonathan Schoop 0.398
Robinson Cano 0.397
Hunter Pence 0.397
Mitch Moreland 0.396
Bryce Harper 0.396
Ryan Howard 0.396
Eric Hosmer 0.394
Khris Davis 0.394
Yasmani Grandal 0.394
Shin-Soo Choo 0.393
George Springer 0.392

Clayton Kershaw 0.313
Jake Arrieta 0.316
Chris Sale 0.321
Collin McHugh 0.325
Matt Harvey 0.326
Noah Syndergaard 0.326
Madison Bumgarner 0.328
Francisco Liriano 0.329
Shelby Miller 0.330
Dallas Keuchel 0.330
Tyson Ross 0.330
CC Sabathia 0.331
Jered Weaver 0.332
Jacob deGrom 0.332
Jimmy Nelson 0.334
Jeff Locke 0.336
Jeff Samardzija 0.336
Wade Miley 0.336
Adam Warren 0.337
R.A. Dickey 0.337
Zack Greinke 0.337
Max Scherzer 0.337
Odrisamer Despaigne 0.337
Marco Estrada 0.338
John Danks 0.338


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