Final Bracket

Left side:

 

New York, NY
1 VILLANOVA
16 Mount St Mary’s/NC Central
Buffalo
8 Dayton
9 Arkansas
5 Virginia
12 Nevada
Milwaukee
4 West Virginia
13 Princeton
6 Wisconsin*
11 MIDD TENN ST
Indianapolis
3 Louisville
14 Northern Kentucky
7 Creighton
10 Vanderbilt
Sacramento
2 Oregon
15 UC Irvine
San Jose
1 GONZAGA
16 New Orleans
Salt Lake City
8 Oklahoma St
9 VCU
5 SMU
12 NC Wilmington
Orlando
4 Florida State
13 FGCU
6 Minnesota
11 Xavier
Orlando
3 Florida
14 E Tenn St.
7 Virginia Tech
10 Michigan St
Salt Lake City
2 ARIZONA
15 Kent St

Right Side:

 

Kansas City, MO
Kansas 1
South Dakota St/Texas St 16
Tulsa
Miami 8
South Carolina 9
Purdue 5
Kansas St/USC 12
Milwaukee
Notre Dame 4
Winthrop 13
St. Mary’s 6
Providence/Wake Forest 11
Sacramento
UCLA 3
Cal St Bakersfield 14
Michigan* 7
Marquette 10
Greenville
DUKE 2
Texas Southern 15
Memphis
North Carolina 1
Jacksonville St 16
Greenville
WICHITA ST 8
Northwestern 9
IOWA ST 5
Vermont 12
Buffalo
Butler 4
Bucknell 13
Cincy 6
RHODE ISLAND 11
Tulsa
Baylor 3
Iona 14
Maryland 7
Seton Hall 10
Indianapolis
Kentucky* 2
North Dakota 15

Updated Bracketology: 15 hours before Selection Show

Hi all,

Been busy with other projects. Will have another bracket before Selection Sunday, and be sure to check out bracketmatrix.com

Left Side:

 

New York, NY
1 VILLANOVA
16 Mount St Mary’s/NC Central
Buffalo
8 Dayton
9 Arkansas
5 Virginia
12 Nevada
Milwaukee
4 West Virginia
13 Princeton
6 Wisconsin*
11 MIDD TENN ST
Indianapolis
3 Louisville
14 Northern Kentucky
7 Creighton
10 Vanderbilt
Sacramento
2 Oregon*
15 UC Irvine
San Jose
1 GONZAGA
16 New Orleans
Salt Lake City
8 Oklahoma St
9 VCU
5 Cincy*
12 NC Wilmington
Orlando
4 Florida State
13 FGCU
6 Minnesota
11 Xavier
Orlando
3 Florida
14 E Tenn St.
7 Virginia Tech
10 Michigan St
Salt Lake City
2 Arizona*
15 Kent St

Right SIde:

Kansas City, MO
Kansas 1
South Dakota St/Texas St 16
Tulsa
Miami 8
South Carolina 9
Purdue 5
Kansas St/USC 12
Milwaukee
Notre Dame 4
Winthrop 13
St. Mary’s 6
Providence/Rhode Island 11
Sacramento
UCLA 3
Cal St Bakersfield 14
Michigan* 7
Marquette 10
Greenville
DUKE 2
Texas Southern 15
Memphis
North Carolina 1
Jacksonville St 16
Greenville
WICHITA ST 8
Northwestern 9
IOWA ST 5
Vermont 12
Buffalo
Butler 4
Bucknell 13
SMU* 6
Wake Forest 11
Tulsa
Baylor 3
Iona 14
Maryland 7
Seton Hall 10
Indianapolis
Kentucky* 2
North Dakota 15

Final Bracket (Right Side)

Philadelphia

UNC 1
Hampton 16
Raleigh
Providence 8
Uconn 9

California 5
Chattanooga 12
Providence
Purdue 4
Fresno St. 13

Baylor 6
St. Mary’s 11
Denver
Utah 3
Hawaii 14

Iowa 7
Cincinnati 10
Brooklyn
West Virginia 2
Weber St. 15

Louisville
Villanova 1
Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson 16
Brooklyn
Wisconsin 8
Gonzaga 9

Arizona 5
Yale 12
Providence
Miami 4
Stony Brook 13

Notre Dame 6
San Diego St/Temple 11
Des Moines
Indiana 3
Buffalo 14

Colorado 7
VCU 10
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma 2
Wisconsin Green-Bay 15

FINAL BRACKET (LEFT SIDE)

Chicago

1 Kansas
16 Austin Peay/Holy Cross
Des Moines
8 St. Joe’s
9 USC

5 Maryland
12 South Dakota St.
Denver
4 Texas AM
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Texas
11 Arkansas Little Rock
St. Louis
3 Xavier
14 Middle Tennessee St.

7 Texas Tech
10 Wichita St.
Spokane
2 Oregon
15 Cal St. Bakersfield

Houston
1 Michigan St.
16 Florida Gulf Coast
St. Louis
8 Oregon St.
9 Butler

5 Duke
12 Northern Iowa
Spokane
4 Seton Hall
13 NC Wilmington

6 Iowa St.
11 Pitt/Valparaiso
Oklahoma City
3 Kentucky
14 Iona

7 Dayton
10 Michigan
Raleigh
2 Virginia
15 NC Asheville

Right side of Bracket

Philadelphia

UNC 1
Hampton 16
Raleigh
Providence 8
St. Joe’s 9

California 5
Chattanooga 12
Providence
Purdue 4
Fresno St. 13

Baylor 6
St. Mary’s 11
Denver
Utah 3
Hawaii 14

Iowa 7
Cincinnati 10
Brooklyn
West Virginia 2
Weber St. 15

Louisville
Villanova 1
Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson 16
Brooklyn
Wisconsin 8
VCU 9

Arizona 5
Yale 12
Providence
Miami 4
Stony Brook 13

Notre Dame 6
San Diego St/Temple 11
Des Moines
Indiana 3
Buffalo 14

Colorado 7
Gonzaga 10
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma 2
Wisconsin Green-Bay 15

Updated Bracketology 3/12 Midnight EST

Dayton 8: Southern vs Fairlegih Dickinson, Austin Peay vs Holy Cross, Pitt vs Valparaiso, San Diego St vs Temple.

First five out: St. Bonaventure, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, George Washington.

Any errors or comments? Contact @manwithaspreads

Please check out the bracketmatrix.com

Chicago

1 Kansas
16 Austin Peay/Holy Cross
Des Moines
8 USC
9 Uconn

5 Maryland
12 South Dakota St.
Denver
4 Texas AM
13 Stephen F. Austin

6 Texas
11 Arkansas Little Rock
St. Louis
3 Xavier
14 Middle Tennessee St.

7 Texas Tech
10 Wichita St.
Spokane
2 Oregon
15 New Mexico St.

Houston
1 Michigan St.
16 Florida Gulf Coast
St. Louis
8 Oregon St.
9 Butler

5 Duke
12 Northern Iowa
Spokane
4 Seton Hall
13 NC Wilmington

6 Iowa St.
11 Pitt/Valparaiso
Oklahoma City
3 Kentucky
14 Iona

7 Dayton
10 Michigan
Raleigh
2 Virginia
15 NC Asheville

MLB Expected Slash Lines based on Exit Velocity

In following up with my previous post, https://manwithaspreadsheet.com/2015/12/10/expected-batting-average-on-batted-balls/, I am attempting to quantify the expected slash line of individual MLB hitters based on solely their exit velocity generated. This is just one fun metric to use to try and identify which players under/over-performed based on results-oriented metrics. I am still tweaking the model, having some difficulty with pull-oriented hitters being overrated (Ortiz) and players with speed, being underrated (Dee Gordon). This is a fun exercise to view 2015 data in a different light:

Hitter xVAVG xVOBP xVSLG xVOPS
Jose Bautista 0.356 0.467 0.574 1.041
Miguel Cabrera 0.285 0.396 0.586 0.982
Michael Conforto 0.342 0.402 0.575 0.977
Josh Donaldson 0.347 0.418 0.554 0.972
Manny Machado 0.35 0.417 0.548 0.965
Yoenis Cespedes 0.351 0.385 0.566 0.951
Mike Trout 0.327 0.422 0.521 0.943
Ryan Zimmerman 0.332 0.392 0.548 0.94
Daniel Murphy 0.355 0.395 0.544 0.939
Bryce Harper 0.314 0.448 0.488 0.936
Carlos Correa 0.334 0.398 0.536 0.934
Edwin Encarnacion 0.278 0.372 0.558 0.93
David Ortiz 0.275 0.37 0.556 0.926
Eric Hosmer 0.337 0.4 0.522 0.922
Paul Goldschmidt 0.306 0.428 0.492 0.92
Lorenzo Cain 0.343 0.386 0.529 0.915
Matt Holliday 0.265 0.374 0.538 0.912
David Peralta 0.329 0.389 0.522 0.911
Ryan Braun 0.319 0.387 0.521 0.908
A.J. Pollock 0.34 0.395 0.512 0.907
Carlos Santana 0.309 0.425 0.482 0.907
Kendrys Morales 0.276 0.345 0.559 0.904
Albert Pujols 0.285 0.342 0.561 0.903
Jason Heyward 0.33 0.395 0.504 0.899
Hanley Ramirez 0.291 0.328 0.57 0.898
Adrian Beltre 0.342 0.388 0.501 0.889
Marcell Ozuna 0.326 0.37 0.518 0.888
Prince Fielder 0.276 0.346 0.541 0.887
Mookie Betts 0.336 0.385 0.499 0.884
Giancarlo Stanton 0.297 0.375 0.509 0.884
Yasiel Puig 0.31 0.37 0.513 0.883
Carlos Beltran 0.292 0.355 0.522 0.877
Christian Yelich 0.319 0.382 0.493 0.875
Howie Kendrick 0.333 0.372 0.502 0.874
Robinson Cano 0.274 0.323 0.55 0.873
Clint Robinson 0.268 0.348 0.519 0.867
Buster Posey 0.293 0.36 0.502 0.862
Jung Ho Kang 0.319 0.364 0.496 0.86
Nolan Arenado 0.323 0.361 0.498 0.859
Gregory Polanco 0.316 0.376 0.48 0.856
Michael Brantley 0.283 0.358 0.498 0.856
Josh Reddick 0.324 0.384 0.47 0.854
Danny Valencia 0.264 0.323 0.528 0.851
Carlos Gonzalez 0.306 0.361 0.487 0.848
Wilson Ramos 0.303 0.334 0.513 0.847
Logan Morrison 0.26 0.331 0.511 0.842
Denard Span 0.308 0.374 0.466 0.84
Justin Turner 0.299 0.361 0.477 0.838
Anthony Rizzo 0.271 0.359 0.479 0.838
George Springer 0.297 0.379 0.458 0.837
Freddie Freeman 0.291 0.377 0.455 0.832
Jose Abreu 0.276 0.322 0.506 0.828
Nelson Cruz 0.246 0.317 0.51 0.827
Trevor Plouffe 0.302 0.36 0.466 0.826
Yasmani Grandal 0.237 0.357 0.469 0.826
Shin-Soo Choo 0.28 0.369 0.456 0.825
Pedro Alvarez 0.267 0.341 0.484 0.825
Mike Moustakas 0.262 0.317 0.508 0.825
Justin Bour 0.251 0.31 0.514 0.824
Hunter Pence 0.275 0.329 0.489 0.818
Ben Zobrist 0.272 0.359 0.458 0.817
Yunel Escobar 0.263 0.322 0.495 0.817
Brad Miller 0.259 0.332 0.484 0.816
Maikel Franco 0.277 0.336 0.478 0.814
Nick Markakis 0.286 0.361 0.449 0.81
Cameron Maybin 0.296 0.356 0.452 0.808
Andrelton Simmons 0.318 0.366 0.441 0.807
Preston Tucker 0.283 0.33 0.476 0.806
Andrew McCutchen 0.241 0.355 0.451 0.806
Travis d’Arnaud 0.291 0.355 0.449 0.804
Yonder Alonso 0.294 0.371 0.433 0.804
Eduardo Nunez 0.29 0.335 0.469 0.804
Joey Votto 0.219 0.384 0.419 0.803
Jason Kipnis 0.299 0.365 0.436 0.801
Mark Teixeira 0.238 0.339 0.461 0.8
Melky Cabrera 0.26 0.306 0.494 0.8
Adam Jones 0.303 0.334 0.462 0.796
Kyle Schwarber 0.268 0.368 0.426 0.794
Jayson Werth 0.283 0.359 0.434 0.793
Enrique Hernandez 0.273 0.313 0.48 0.793
Dustin Ackley 0.251 0.305 0.487 0.792
Justin Upton 0.279 0.361 0.429 0.79
Rougned Odor 0.297 0.335 0.455 0.79
Juan Uribe 0.289 0.352 0.437 0.789
Evan Longoria 0.274 0.333 0.455 0.788
Lucas Duda 0.26 0.353 0.435 0.788
Russell Martin 0.257 0.339 0.449 0.788
Mitch Moreland 0.25 0.3 0.488 0.788
J.T. Realmuto 0.303 0.334 0.451 0.785
Alex Rodriguez 0.238 0.345 0.44 0.785
Gregor Blanco 0.287 0.367 0.418 0.785
DJ LeMahieu 0.295 0.354 0.431 0.785
Kolten Wong 0.303 0.347 0.438 0.785
Mark Trumbo 0.243 0.295 0.489 0.784
Xander Bogaerts 0.305 0.342 0.441 0.783
Kyle Seager 0.272 0.332 0.451 0.783
Curtis Granderson 0.271 0.372 0.411 0.783
Billy Butler 0.245 0.314 0.469 0.783
Adam Lind 0.237 0.328 0.453 0.781
J.D. Martinez 0.236 0.301 0.48 0.781