Expected Batting Average on Batted Balls

Spent a few weeks digging through data from the excellent @darenw on his website baseballsavant.com. Daren has discussed in the past a donut-hole with the data; where a batter generally experiences more success on a high-60 mph generated ball than a similar at bat culminating with mid-80 exit velocity.

Using this data, I wanted to quantify which players are expected to have the best batting average on batted balls (please note this differs from BABIP, as this includes homers). I will post some more information in coming articles, examining batted ball luck by player/pitcher, as well as looking at Expected Slugging %. The flaws in this analysis should be noted as well: Exit Velocity data is still somewhat raw, and this does not factor in speed or the possibility of exit velocity readings being park-dependent. Below is a ranking of the top 50 hitters with at least 100 balls batted, as well as the top 25 pitchers with at least 300 batted balls allowed.

Hitter Avg(Batted Balls)
Giancarlo Stanton 0.484
Miguel Sano 0.444
Nelson Cruz 0.431
Mike Trout 0.430
Yoenis Cespedes 0.427
Miguel Cabrera 0.425
Michael Conforto 0.425
Jose Bautista 0.423
Pedro Alvarez 0.423
Chris Carter 0.423
Justin Bour 0.420
Randal Grichuk 0.419
Ryan Zimmerman 0.419
Mark Trumbo 0.416
David Peralta 0.416
Josh Donaldson 0.416
Hanley Ramirez 0.415
Marcell Ozuna 0.415
Ryan Braun 0.413
Danny Valencia 0.413
Paul Goldschmidt 0.413
J.D. Martinez 0.412
Jorge Soler 0.412
Matt Holliday 0.411
Michael Morse 0.411
Kendrys Morales 0.411
Kyle Schwarber 0.410
Edwin Encarnacion 0.409
David Ortiz 0.407
Jose Abreu 0.407
Yasiel Puig 0.406
Chris Davis 0.406
Jung Ho Kang 0.404
Justin Smoak 0.404
Carlos Correa 0.403
Manny Machado 0.403
Wilson Ramos 0.401
Joc Pederson 0.401
Carlos Gonzalez 0.399
Jonathan Schoop 0.398
Robinson Cano 0.397
Hunter Pence 0.397
Mitch Moreland 0.396
Bryce Harper 0.396
Ryan Howard 0.396
Eric Hosmer 0.394
Khris Davis 0.394
Yasmani Grandal 0.394
Shin-Soo Choo 0.393
George Springer 0.392

Clayton Kershaw 0.313
Jake Arrieta 0.316
Chris Sale 0.321
Collin McHugh 0.325
Matt Harvey 0.326
Noah Syndergaard 0.326
Madison Bumgarner 0.328
Francisco Liriano 0.329
Shelby Miller 0.330
Dallas Keuchel 0.330
Tyson Ross 0.330
CC Sabathia 0.331
Jered Weaver 0.332
Jacob deGrom 0.332
Jimmy Nelson 0.334
Jeff Locke 0.336
Jeff Samardzija 0.336
Wade Miley 0.336
Adam Warren 0.337
R.A. Dickey 0.337
Zack Greinke 0.337
Max Scherzer 0.337
Odrisamer Despaigne 0.337
Marco Estrada 0.338
John Danks 0.338

Rest of season: QB Re-ranks

My Rank  Player Name Position Team
1 Tom Brady QB NE
2 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
3 Andrew Luck QB IND
4 Cam Newton QB CAR
5 Carson Palmer QB ARI
6 Russell Wilson QB SEA
7 Matt Ryan QB ATL
8 Andy Dalton QB CIN
9 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
10 Philip Rivers QB SD
11 Drew Brees QB NO
12 Eli Manning QB NYG
13 Tyrod Taylor QB Buf
14 Ryan Tannehill QB MIA
15 Tony Romo QB DAL
16 Blake Bortles QB JAC
17 Jay Cutler QB CHI
18 Colin Kaepernick QB SF
19 Matthew Stafford QB DET
20 Derek Carr QB OAK

Rest of season: RB Re-ranks

My Rank  Player Name Position Team
1 Le’Veon Bell RB PIT
2 Adrian Peterson RB MIN
3 Devonta Freeman RB ATL
4 Matt Forte RB CHI
5 Latavius Murray RB OAK
6 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
7 Chris Ivory RB NYJ
8 Todd Gurley RB STL
9 Arian Foster RB HOU
10 Mark Ingram RB NO
11 Carlos Hyde RB SF
12 Doug Martin RB TB
13 Eddie Lacy RB GB
14 Dion Lewis RB NE
15 Lamar Miller RB MIA
16 Frank Gore RB IND
17 Demarco Murray RB PHI
18 Justin Forsett RB BAL
19 Giovani Bernard RB CIN
20 LeSean McCoy RB BUF
21 LeGarrette Blount RB NE
22 Jeremy Hill RB CIN
23 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR
24 Danny Woodhead RB SD
25 Melvin Gordon RB SD
26 Chris Johnson RB ARI
27 Joseph Randle RB DAL
28 Alfred Morris RB WAS
29 Ronnie Hillman RB DEN
30 TJ Yeldon RB JAC
31 Charcandrick West RB KC
32 Christine Michael RB DAL
33 Ameer Abdullah RB DET
34 Duke Johnson RB CLE
35 James Starks RB GB
36 C.J. Spiller RB NO
37 Rashad Jennings RB NYG
38 Isaiah Crowell RB CLE
39 C.J. Anderson RB DEN
40 Matt Jones RB WAS
41 Knile Davis RB KC
42 Ryan Mathews RB PHI
43 Antonio Andrews RB TEN
44 Darren Sproles RB PHI
45 Karlos Williams RB BUF
46 Bishop Sankey RB TEN
47 Shane Vereen RB NYG
48 David Johnson RB ARI
49 Tevin Coleman RB ATL
50 Charles Sims RB TB

Rest of season WR re-ranks

My Rank  Player Name Position Team
1 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
2 Julio Jones WR ATL
3 Odell Beckham Jr. WR NYG
4 Antonio Brown WR PIT
5 AJ Green WR CIN
6 Randall Cobb WR GB
7 Julian Edelman WR NE
8 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN
9 Amari Cooper WR OAK
10 Brandon Marshall WR NYJ
11 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
12 Calvin Johnson WR DET
13 Keenan Allen WR SD
14 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
15 Ty Hilton WR IND
16 Jarvis Landry WR MIA
17 Allen Robinson WR JAC
18 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI
19 Steve Smith WR BAL
20 Mike Evans WR TB
21 Donte Moncrief WR IND
22 Jordan Matthews WR PHI
23 Eric Decker WR NYJ
24 Dez Bryant WR DAL
25 Michael Crabtree WR OAK
26 Pierre Garcon WR WAS
27 Brandin Cooks WR NO
28 Vincent Jackson WR TB
29 Kendall Wright WR TEN
30 Martavis Bryant WR PIT
31 Willie Snead WR NO
32 James Jones WR GB
33 Jeremy Maclin WR KC
34 DeSean Jackson WR WAS
35 Allen Hurns WR JAC
36 Anquan Boldin WR SF
37 John Brown WR ARI
38 Davante Adams WR GB
39 Golden Tate WR DET
40 Travis Benjamin WR CLE
41 Rishard Matthews WR MIA
42 Terrance Williams WR DAL
43 Leonard Hankerson WR ATL
44 Sammy Watkins WR BUF
45 Mike Wallace WR MIN
46 Stefon Diggs WR MIN
47 Cecil Shorts WR HOU
48 Marvin Jones WR CIN
49 Doug Baldwin WR SEA
50 Steve Johnson WR SD

Rest of season: TE ranks

My Rank  Player Name Position Team
1 Rob Gronkowski TE NE
2 Greg Olsen TE CAR
3 Travis Kelce TE KC
4 Antonio Gates TE SD
5 Tyler Eifert TE CIN
6 Jimmy Graham TE SEA
7 Martellus Bennett TE CHI
8 Julius Thomas TE JAC
9 Jason Witten TE DAL
10 Charles Clay TE BUF
11 Gary Barnidge TE CLE
12 Jordan Cameron TE MIA
13 Delanie Walker TE TEN
14 Jordan Reed TE WAS
15 Benjamin Watson TE NO
16 Eric Ebron TE DET
17 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE TB
18 Larry Donnell TE NYG
19 Richard Rodgers TE GB
20 Crockett Gillmore TE BAL
21 Kyle Rudolph TE MIN

QB Re-Ranks: Rest of Season

Re-ranks for a new week. Any questions/comments can be directed to @manwithaspreadsheet

@manwithaspreadsheet

My Rank  Player Name Position Team
1 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
2 Andrew Luck QB IND
3 Tom Brady QB NE
4 Russell Wilson QB SEA
5 Matt Ryan QB ATL
6 Cam Newton QB CAR
7 Carson Palmer QB ARI
8 Peyton Manning QB DEN
9 Ryan Tannehill QB MIA
10 Drew Brees QB NO
11 Tyrod Taylor QB Buf
12 Philip Rivers QB SD
13 Matthew Stafford QB DET
14 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
15 Eli Manning QB NYG
16 Marcus Mariota QB TEN
17 Andy Dalton QB CIN
18 Colin Kaepernick QB SF
19 Sam Bradford QB PHI
20 Derek Carr QB OAK

RB Re-Ranks: Rest of Season

My Rank  Player Name Position Team
1 Le’Veon Bell RB PIT
2 Jamaal Charles RB KC
3 Adrian Peterson RB MIN
4 Eddie Lacy RB GB
5 Matt Forte RB CHI
6 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
7 Carlos Hyde RB SF
8 Jeremy Hill RB CIN
9 Latavius Murray RB OAK
10 Mark Ingram RB NO
11 LeSean McCoy RB BUF
12 Lamar Miller RB MIA
13 Arian Foster RB HOU
14 Frank Gore RB IND
15 Joseph Randle RB DAL
16 DeMarco Murray RB PHI
17 Devonta Freeman RB ATL
18 Dion Lewis RB NE
19 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR
20 Chris Ivory RB NYJ
21 Alfred Morris RB WAS
22 C.J. Anderson RB DEN
23 Melvin Gordon RB SD
24 Danny Woodhead RB SD
25 Justin Forsett RB BAL
26 Isaiah Crowell RB CLE
27 Matt Jones RB WAS
28 Giovani Bernard RB CIN
29 LeGarrette Blount RB NE
30 Doug Martin RB TB
31 Ameer Abdullah RB DET
32 Andre Ellington RB ARI
33 TJ Yeldon RB JAC
34 Todd Gurley RB STL
35 Rashad Jennings RB NYG
36 Karlos Williams RB BUF
37 Alfred Blue RB HOU
38 C.J. Spiller RB NO
39 Ryan Mathews RB PHI
40 Ronnie Hillman RB DEN
41 Tevin Coleman RB ATL
42 Darren Sproles RB PHI
43 Joique Bell RB DET
44 Shane Vereen RB NYG
45 Duke Johnson RB CLE
46 Bilal Powell RB NYJ
47 Chris Johnson RB ARI
48 Bishop Sankey RB TEN
49 Knile Davis RB KC
50 Charles Sims RB TB
51 David Johnson RB ARI
52 Lance Dunbar RB DAL
53 Khiry Robinson RB NO
54 Darren McFadden RB DAL
55 James Starks RB GB