MLB Expected Slash Lines based on Exit Velocity

In following up with my previous post, https://manwithaspreadsheet.com/2015/12/10/expected-batting-average-on-batted-balls/, I am attempting to quantify the expected slash line of individual MLB hitters based on solely their exit velocity generated. This is just one fun metric to use to try and identify which players under/over-performed based on results-oriented metrics. I am still tweaking the model, having some difficulty with pull-oriented hitters being overrated (Ortiz) and players with speed, being underrated (Dee Gordon). This is a fun exercise to view 2015 data in a different light:

Hitter xVAVG xVOBP xVSLG xVOPS
Jose Bautista 0.356 0.467 0.574 1.041
Miguel Cabrera 0.285 0.396 0.586 0.982
Michael Conforto 0.342 0.402 0.575 0.977
Josh Donaldson 0.347 0.418 0.554 0.972
Manny Machado 0.35 0.417 0.548 0.965
Yoenis Cespedes 0.351 0.385 0.566 0.951
Mike Trout 0.327 0.422 0.521 0.943
Ryan Zimmerman 0.332 0.392 0.548 0.94
Daniel Murphy 0.355 0.395 0.544 0.939
Bryce Harper 0.314 0.448 0.488 0.936
Carlos Correa 0.334 0.398 0.536 0.934
Edwin Encarnacion 0.278 0.372 0.558 0.93
David Ortiz 0.275 0.37 0.556 0.926
Eric Hosmer 0.337 0.4 0.522 0.922
Paul Goldschmidt 0.306 0.428 0.492 0.92
Lorenzo Cain 0.343 0.386 0.529 0.915
Matt Holliday 0.265 0.374 0.538 0.912
David Peralta 0.329 0.389 0.522 0.911
Ryan Braun 0.319 0.387 0.521 0.908
A.J. Pollock 0.34 0.395 0.512 0.907
Carlos Santana 0.309 0.425 0.482 0.907
Kendrys Morales 0.276 0.345 0.559 0.904
Albert Pujols 0.285 0.342 0.561 0.903
Jason Heyward 0.33 0.395 0.504 0.899
Hanley Ramirez 0.291 0.328 0.57 0.898
Adrian Beltre 0.342 0.388 0.501 0.889
Marcell Ozuna 0.326 0.37 0.518 0.888
Prince Fielder 0.276 0.346 0.541 0.887
Mookie Betts 0.336 0.385 0.499 0.884
Giancarlo Stanton 0.297 0.375 0.509 0.884
Yasiel Puig 0.31 0.37 0.513 0.883
Carlos Beltran 0.292 0.355 0.522 0.877
Christian Yelich 0.319 0.382 0.493 0.875
Howie Kendrick 0.333 0.372 0.502 0.874
Robinson Cano 0.274 0.323 0.55 0.873
Clint Robinson 0.268 0.348 0.519 0.867
Buster Posey 0.293 0.36 0.502 0.862
Jung Ho Kang 0.319 0.364 0.496 0.86
Nolan Arenado 0.323 0.361 0.498 0.859
Gregory Polanco 0.316 0.376 0.48 0.856
Michael Brantley 0.283 0.358 0.498 0.856
Josh Reddick 0.324 0.384 0.47 0.854
Danny Valencia 0.264 0.323 0.528 0.851
Carlos Gonzalez 0.306 0.361 0.487 0.848
Wilson Ramos 0.303 0.334 0.513 0.847
Logan Morrison 0.26 0.331 0.511 0.842
Denard Span 0.308 0.374 0.466 0.84
Justin Turner 0.299 0.361 0.477 0.838
Anthony Rizzo 0.271 0.359 0.479 0.838
George Springer 0.297 0.379 0.458 0.837
Freddie Freeman 0.291 0.377 0.455 0.832
Jose Abreu 0.276 0.322 0.506 0.828
Nelson Cruz 0.246 0.317 0.51 0.827
Trevor Plouffe 0.302 0.36 0.466 0.826
Yasmani Grandal 0.237 0.357 0.469 0.826
Shin-Soo Choo 0.28 0.369 0.456 0.825
Pedro Alvarez 0.267 0.341 0.484 0.825
Mike Moustakas 0.262 0.317 0.508 0.825
Justin Bour 0.251 0.31 0.514 0.824
Hunter Pence 0.275 0.329 0.489 0.818
Ben Zobrist 0.272 0.359 0.458 0.817
Yunel Escobar 0.263 0.322 0.495 0.817
Brad Miller 0.259 0.332 0.484 0.816
Maikel Franco 0.277 0.336 0.478 0.814
Nick Markakis 0.286 0.361 0.449 0.81
Cameron Maybin 0.296 0.356 0.452 0.808
Andrelton Simmons 0.318 0.366 0.441 0.807
Preston Tucker 0.283 0.33 0.476 0.806
Andrew McCutchen 0.241 0.355 0.451 0.806
Travis d’Arnaud 0.291 0.355 0.449 0.804
Yonder Alonso 0.294 0.371 0.433 0.804
Eduardo Nunez 0.29 0.335 0.469 0.804
Joey Votto 0.219 0.384 0.419 0.803
Jason Kipnis 0.299 0.365 0.436 0.801
Mark Teixeira 0.238 0.339 0.461 0.8
Melky Cabrera 0.26 0.306 0.494 0.8
Adam Jones 0.303 0.334 0.462 0.796
Kyle Schwarber 0.268 0.368 0.426 0.794
Jayson Werth 0.283 0.359 0.434 0.793
Enrique Hernandez 0.273 0.313 0.48 0.793
Dustin Ackley 0.251 0.305 0.487 0.792
Justin Upton 0.279 0.361 0.429 0.79
Rougned Odor 0.297 0.335 0.455 0.79
Juan Uribe 0.289 0.352 0.437 0.789
Evan Longoria 0.274 0.333 0.455 0.788
Lucas Duda 0.26 0.353 0.435 0.788
Russell Martin 0.257 0.339 0.449 0.788
Mitch Moreland 0.25 0.3 0.488 0.788
J.T. Realmuto 0.303 0.334 0.451 0.785
Alex Rodriguez 0.238 0.345 0.44 0.785
Gregor Blanco 0.287 0.367 0.418 0.785
DJ LeMahieu 0.295 0.354 0.431 0.785
Kolten Wong 0.303 0.347 0.438 0.785
Mark Trumbo 0.243 0.295 0.489 0.784
Xander Bogaerts 0.305 0.342 0.441 0.783
Kyle Seager 0.272 0.332 0.451 0.783
Curtis Granderson 0.271 0.372 0.411 0.783
Billy Butler 0.245 0.314 0.469 0.783
Adam Lind 0.237 0.328 0.453 0.781
J.D. Martinez 0.236 0.301 0.48 0.781

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Expected Batting Average on Batted Balls

Spent a few weeks digging through data from the excellent @darenw on his website baseballsavant.com. Daren has discussed in the past a donut-hole with the data; where a batter generally experiences more success on a high-60 mph generated ball than a similar at bat culminating with mid-80 exit velocity.

Using this data, I wanted to quantify which players are expected to have the best batting average on batted balls (please note this differs from BABIP, as this includes homers). I will post some more information in coming articles, examining batted ball luck by player/pitcher, as well as looking at Expected Slugging %. The flaws in this analysis should be noted as well: Exit Velocity data is still somewhat raw, and this does not factor in speed or the possibility of exit velocity readings being park-dependent. Below is a ranking of the top 50 hitters with at least 100 balls batted, as well as the top 25 pitchers with at least 300 batted balls allowed.

Hitter Avg(Batted Balls)
Giancarlo Stanton 0.484
Miguel Sano 0.444
Nelson Cruz 0.431
Mike Trout 0.430
Yoenis Cespedes 0.427
Miguel Cabrera 0.425
Michael Conforto 0.425
Jose Bautista 0.423
Pedro Alvarez 0.423
Chris Carter 0.423
Justin Bour 0.420
Randal Grichuk 0.419
Ryan Zimmerman 0.419
Mark Trumbo 0.416
David Peralta 0.416
Josh Donaldson 0.416
Hanley Ramirez 0.415
Marcell Ozuna 0.415
Ryan Braun 0.413
Danny Valencia 0.413
Paul Goldschmidt 0.413
J.D. Martinez 0.412
Jorge Soler 0.412
Matt Holliday 0.411
Michael Morse 0.411
Kendrys Morales 0.411
Kyle Schwarber 0.410
Edwin Encarnacion 0.409
David Ortiz 0.407
Jose Abreu 0.407
Yasiel Puig 0.406
Chris Davis 0.406
Jung Ho Kang 0.404
Justin Smoak 0.404
Carlos Correa 0.403
Manny Machado 0.403
Wilson Ramos 0.401
Joc Pederson 0.401
Carlos Gonzalez 0.399
Jonathan Schoop 0.398
Robinson Cano 0.397
Hunter Pence 0.397
Mitch Moreland 0.396
Bryce Harper 0.396
Ryan Howard 0.396
Eric Hosmer 0.394
Khris Davis 0.394
Yasmani Grandal 0.394
Shin-Soo Choo 0.393
George Springer 0.392

Clayton Kershaw 0.313
Jake Arrieta 0.316
Chris Sale 0.321
Collin McHugh 0.325
Matt Harvey 0.326
Noah Syndergaard 0.326
Madison Bumgarner 0.328
Francisco Liriano 0.329
Shelby Miller 0.330
Dallas Keuchel 0.330
Tyson Ross 0.330
CC Sabathia 0.331
Jered Weaver 0.332
Jacob deGrom 0.332
Jimmy Nelson 0.334
Jeff Locke 0.336
Jeff Samardzija 0.336
Wade Miley 0.336
Adam Warren 0.337
R.A. Dickey 0.337
Zack Greinke 0.337
Max Scherzer 0.337
Odrisamer Despaigne 0.337
Marco Estrada 0.338
John Danks 0.338

Rest of season: QB Re-ranks

My Rank  Player Name Position Team
1 Tom Brady QB NE
2 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
3 Andrew Luck QB IND
4 Cam Newton QB CAR
5 Carson Palmer QB ARI
6 Russell Wilson QB SEA
7 Matt Ryan QB ATL
8 Andy Dalton QB CIN
9 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
10 Philip Rivers QB SD
11 Drew Brees QB NO
12 Eli Manning QB NYG
13 Tyrod Taylor QB Buf
14 Ryan Tannehill QB MIA
15 Tony Romo QB DAL
16 Blake Bortles QB JAC
17 Jay Cutler QB CHI
18 Colin Kaepernick QB SF
19 Matthew Stafford QB DET
20 Derek Carr QB OAK

Rest of season: RB Re-ranks

My Rank  Player Name Position Team
1 Le’Veon Bell RB PIT
2 Adrian Peterson RB MIN
3 Devonta Freeman RB ATL
4 Matt Forte RB CHI
5 Latavius Murray RB OAK
6 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
7 Chris Ivory RB NYJ
8 Todd Gurley RB STL
9 Arian Foster RB HOU
10 Mark Ingram RB NO
11 Carlos Hyde RB SF
12 Doug Martin RB TB
13 Eddie Lacy RB GB
14 Dion Lewis RB NE
15 Lamar Miller RB MIA
16 Frank Gore RB IND
17 Demarco Murray RB PHI
18 Justin Forsett RB BAL
19 Giovani Bernard RB CIN
20 LeSean McCoy RB BUF
21 LeGarrette Blount RB NE
22 Jeremy Hill RB CIN
23 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR
24 Danny Woodhead RB SD
25 Melvin Gordon RB SD
26 Chris Johnson RB ARI
27 Joseph Randle RB DAL
28 Alfred Morris RB WAS
29 Ronnie Hillman RB DEN
30 TJ Yeldon RB JAC
31 Charcandrick West RB KC
32 Christine Michael RB DAL
33 Ameer Abdullah RB DET
34 Duke Johnson RB CLE
35 James Starks RB GB
36 C.J. Spiller RB NO
37 Rashad Jennings RB NYG
38 Isaiah Crowell RB CLE
39 C.J. Anderson RB DEN
40 Matt Jones RB WAS
41 Knile Davis RB KC
42 Ryan Mathews RB PHI
43 Antonio Andrews RB TEN
44 Darren Sproles RB PHI
45 Karlos Williams RB BUF
46 Bishop Sankey RB TEN
47 Shane Vereen RB NYG
48 David Johnson RB ARI
49 Tevin Coleman RB ATL
50 Charles Sims RB TB

Rest of season WR re-ranks

My Rank  Player Name Position Team
1 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
2 Julio Jones WR ATL
3 Odell Beckham Jr. WR NYG
4 Antonio Brown WR PIT
5 AJ Green WR CIN
6 Randall Cobb WR GB
7 Julian Edelman WR NE
8 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN
9 Amari Cooper WR OAK
10 Brandon Marshall WR NYJ
11 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
12 Calvin Johnson WR DET
13 Keenan Allen WR SD
14 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
15 Ty Hilton WR IND
16 Jarvis Landry WR MIA
17 Allen Robinson WR JAC
18 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI
19 Steve Smith WR BAL
20 Mike Evans WR TB
21 Donte Moncrief WR IND
22 Jordan Matthews WR PHI
23 Eric Decker WR NYJ
24 Dez Bryant WR DAL
25 Michael Crabtree WR OAK
26 Pierre Garcon WR WAS
27 Brandin Cooks WR NO
28 Vincent Jackson WR TB
29 Kendall Wright WR TEN
30 Martavis Bryant WR PIT
31 Willie Snead WR NO
32 James Jones WR GB
33 Jeremy Maclin WR KC
34 DeSean Jackson WR WAS
35 Allen Hurns WR JAC
36 Anquan Boldin WR SF
37 John Brown WR ARI
38 Davante Adams WR GB
39 Golden Tate WR DET
40 Travis Benjamin WR CLE
41 Rishard Matthews WR MIA
42 Terrance Williams WR DAL
43 Leonard Hankerson WR ATL
44 Sammy Watkins WR BUF
45 Mike Wallace WR MIN
46 Stefon Diggs WR MIN
47 Cecil Shorts WR HOU
48 Marvin Jones WR CIN
49 Doug Baldwin WR SEA
50 Steve Johnson WR SD

Rest of season: TE ranks

My Rank  Player Name Position Team
1 Rob Gronkowski TE NE
2 Greg Olsen TE CAR
3 Travis Kelce TE KC
4 Antonio Gates TE SD
5 Tyler Eifert TE CIN
6 Jimmy Graham TE SEA
7 Martellus Bennett TE CHI
8 Julius Thomas TE JAC
9 Jason Witten TE DAL
10 Charles Clay TE BUF
11 Gary Barnidge TE CLE
12 Jordan Cameron TE MIA
13 Delanie Walker TE TEN
14 Jordan Reed TE WAS
15 Benjamin Watson TE NO
16 Eric Ebron TE DET
17 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE TB
18 Larry Donnell TE NYG
19 Richard Rodgers TE GB
20 Crockett Gillmore TE BAL
21 Kyle Rudolph TE MIN

QB Re-Ranks: Rest of Season

Re-ranks for a new week. Any questions/comments can be directed to @manwithaspreadsheet

@manwithaspreadsheet

My Rank  Player Name Position Team
1 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
2 Andrew Luck QB IND
3 Tom Brady QB NE
4 Russell Wilson QB SEA
5 Matt Ryan QB ATL
6 Cam Newton QB CAR
7 Carson Palmer QB ARI
8 Peyton Manning QB DEN
9 Ryan Tannehill QB MIA
10 Drew Brees QB NO
11 Tyrod Taylor QB Buf
12 Philip Rivers QB SD
13 Matthew Stafford QB DET
14 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
15 Eli Manning QB NYG
16 Marcus Mariota QB TEN
17 Andy Dalton QB CIN
18 Colin Kaepernick QB SF
19 Sam Bradford QB PHI
20 Derek Carr QB OAK